My top 10 Oscar predictions

So Oscar fever continues and this time I’m going to talk about ten Oscar categories I actually care about (what is production design anyway), which nominee I think is going to win, which nominee I wish would win and which nominee I would be least impressed with.

oscars-2014-nominees

Writing – best adapted screenplay

The nominees:
“American Sniper” Written by Jason Hall
“The Imitation Game” Written by Graham Moore
“Inherent Vice” Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Theory of Everything” Screenplay by Anthony McCarten
“Whiplash” Written by Damien Chazelle

What have I actually seen?
“American Sniper” Written by Jason Hall
“The Theory of Everything” Screenplay by Anthony McCarten
“Whiplash” Written by Damien Chazelle

What do I want to win?
“Whiplash” Written by Damien Chazelle

What do I think will win?
“Whiplash” Written by Damien Chazelle

What do I really hope doesn’t win?
“American Sniper” Written by Jason Hall

Writing – original screenplay

The nominees:
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Written by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo
“Boyhood” Written by Richard Linklater
“Foxcatcher” Written by E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Screenplay by Wes Anderson; Story by Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness
“Nightcrawler” Written by Dan Gilroy

What have I actually seen?
All of them

What do I want to win?
“Nightcrawler” Written by Dan Gilroy

What do I think will win?
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Written by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo

What do I really hope doesn’t win?
I actually thought all of them were great

Supporting actor

The nominees:
Robert Duvall in “The Judge”
Ethan Hawke in “Boyhood”
Edward Norton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Mark Ruffalo in “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons in “Whiplash”

What have I actually seen?
Ethan Hawke in “Boyhood”
Edward Norton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Mark Ruffalo in “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons in “Whiplash”

What do I want to win?
J.K. Simmons in “Whiplash”

What do I think will win?
J.K. Simmons in “Whiplash”

What do I really hope doesn’t win?
Robert Duvall in “The Judge”

Supporting actress

The nominees:
Patricia Arquette in “Boyhood”
Laura Dern in “Wild”
Keira Knightley in “The Imitation Game”
Emma Stone in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Meryl Streep in “Into the Woods”

What have I actually seen?
Patricia Arquette in “Boyhood”
Laura Dern in “Wild”
Emma Stone in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Meryl Streep in “Into the Woods”

What do I want to win?
Patricia Arquette in “Boyhood”

What do I think will win?
Emma Stone in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

What do I really hope doesn’t win?
Meryl Streep in “Into the Woods”

Actor

The nominees:
Steve Carell in “Foxcatcher”
Bradley Cooper in “American Sniper”
Benedict Cumberbatch in “The Imitation Game”
Michael Keaton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Eddie Redmayne in “The Theory of Everything”

What have I actually seen?
Steve Carell in “Foxcatcher”
Bradley Cooper in “American Sniper”
Michael Keaton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Eddie Redmayne in “The Theory of Everything”

What do I want to win?
Michael Keaton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”

What do I think will win?
Eddie Redmayne in “The Theory of Everything”

What do I think actually should win and didn’t even get fucking nominated?
Jake Gyllenhaal in “Nightcrawler”

What do I really hope doesn’t win?
Bradley Cooper in “American Sniper”

Actress

The nominees:
Marion Cotillard in “Two Days, One Night”
Felicity Jones in “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore in “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike in “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon in “Wild”

What have I actually seen?
Felicity Jones in “The Theory of Everything”
Rosamund Pike in “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon in “Wild”

What do I want to win?
Rosamund Pike in “Gone Girl”

What do I think will win?
Julianne Moore in “Still Alice”

What do I really hope doesn’t win?
I haven’t seen enough of these to have an issue with any of them

Cinematography

The nominees:
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Emmanuel Lubezki
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Robert Yeoman
“Ida” Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski
“Mr. Turner” Dick Pope
“Unbroken” Roger Deakins

What have I actually seen?
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Emmanuel Lubezki
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Robert Yeoman
“Unbroken” Roger Deakins

What do I want to win?
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Robert Yeoman

What do I think will win?
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Robert Yeoman

What do I really hope doesn’t win?
I haven’t seen enough of these to have an issue with any of them

Film Editing

The nominees:
“American Sniper” Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach
“Boyhood” Sandra Adair
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Barney Pilling
“The Imitation Game” William Goldenberg
“Whiplash” Tom Cross

What have I actually seen?
“American Sniper” Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach
“Boyhood” Sandra Adair
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Barney Pilling
“Whiplash” Tom Cross

What do I want to win?
“Whiplash” Tom Cross

What do I think will win?
“Whiplash” Tom Cross

What do I really hope doesn’t win?
“American Sniper” Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach

Director

The nominees:
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Alejandro G. Iñárritu
“Boyhood” Richard Linklater
“Foxcatcher” Bennett Miller
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Wes Anderson
“The Imitation Game” Morten Tyldum

What have I actually seen?
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Alejandro G. Iñárritu
“Boyhood” Richard Linklater
“Foxcatcher” Bennett Miller
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Wes Anderson

What do I want to win?
“Boyhood” Richard Linklater

What do I think will win?
“Boyhood” Richard Linklater

What do I really hope doesn’t win?
I like all the ones I have seen and can’t judge the one I haven’t

Picture

The nominees:
“American Sniper” Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andrew Lazar, Bradley Cooper and Peter Morgan
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Alejandro G. Iñárritu, John Lesher and James W. Skotchdopole, Producers
“Boyhood” Richard Linklater and Cathleen Sutherland, Producers
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson, Producers
“The Imitation Game” Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky and Teddy Schwarzman, Producers
“Selma” Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers
“The Theory of Everything” Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce and Anthony McCarten, Producers
“Whiplash” Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook and David Lancaster, Producers

What have I actually seen?
“American Sniper” Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andrew Lazar, Bradley Cooper and Peter Morgan
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Alejandro G. Iñárritu, John Lesher and James W. Skotchdopole, Producers
“Boyhood” Richard Linklater and Cathleen Sutherland, Producers
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson, Producers
“The Theory of Everything” Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce and Anthony McCarten, Producers
“Whiplash” Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook and David Lancaster, Producers

What do I want to win?
“Boyhood” Richard Linklater

What do I think will win?
“Boyhood” Richard Linklater

What do I really hope doesn’t win?
“American Sniper” Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andrew Lazar, Bradley Cooper and Peter Morgan

So what do you think? Did I get it right? Am I talking out of my ass? What are your picks?

33 Comments

  1. great choices. i have yet to see Still Alice and Into the Woods, but I agree with you on pracitcally everything here, esp. American Sniper (dreadful shite) .. and the absence of Gyllenhaal

    1. Abbi

      Thanks! If I were you I really wouldn’t bother with Into the Woods… lol! I am glad I am not the only one who really, really didn’t get American Sniper.

      1. i loathed american sniper; am bewildered it’s nominated for best picture

        1. Abbi

          It’s baffling especially when you consider that Nightcrawler and A Most Violent Year were not.

          1. have yet to see A Most Violent Year; hear it’s great

            1. Abbi

              I loved it. Probably my favourite I’ve seen this year so far.

      2. We tried to watch American Sniper yesterday before red carpet but just couldn’t. Finished watching around 45 minute. I absolutely hated it. Haven’t seen that bad film (or part of it) for years. It’s off putting and so boring. I couldn’t find anything good in it. Ugh.

        1. Abbi

          I am glad I am not the only one. I had someone commenting on my blog about how it was such an amazing film and I was clearly missing out and I was like… er… no. Maybe Americans experience it differently.

          1. Probably. There were bunch of us Finn girls (women) watching it and about half of us left the living room before we even stopped it.

  2. You are so much ahead of me (and keeping me on track!). I haven’t seen any movies that are nominated…….gasp! I know!!!! Crazy, yes. I’m looking forward to the Oscars….they are my favourite!

    1. Abbi

      I am spoiled by the fact that I live ten minutes away from a theatre that sells memberships where you can see as many films as you like for a fixed price. So I go two or three times a week. I also don’t have two little ones to chase!

  3. Great picks! I’d hate to jinx JK Simmons but I feel pretty confident he won’t be going home empty handed. It’ll be sweet if Whiplash can pick up the statue for Best Editing and Best Adapted Screenplay too.:)

    1. Abbi

      Thanks! Whiplash definitely deserves a good showing. It’s a great piece of cinema.

    2. ditto. the writers guild picked the imitation game as best adapted screenplay, which i don’t really understand; it seems to hit all the expected beats and there’s very little surprising about its structure or story. plus, the ending seems rushed. Whiplash contained a couple of genius moments/shocks

      1. Abbi

        Imitation Game is now the only one of the major contenders I haven’t seen. It didn’t excite me enough when it was in theatres and now I regret it. Fortunately the ones I did see were pretty epic. Except American Sniper of course!

        1. Imitation Game is good. It’s not super fantastic, but it’s good.

      2. Hey Niall, I didn’t enjoy the imitation game that much, it was alright, some parts felt forced to me while Whiplash took me for a great ride, plus that ending is incredible. 🙂

  4. I love your predictions. I really hope Boyhood wins too although given all of Birdman’s wins in the guilds Boyhood would seem to be the underdog at this point. Oh and if Patricia Arquette doesn’t win in “Boyhood” it will be the biggest shock in the Academy’s history. So far she has won every single award that exists for that role. 🙂

    1. Abbi

      I liked Birdman but it just didn’t resonate with me like Boyhood did. Hoping the Academy will see it my way but more often than not I get it wrong!

  5. How strange Gllynthal was shafted. I hope J.K. Simmons wins and I don’t have any issues with your list. The Best Actress award this year didn’t have me all excited. I don’t think any of the performances “blew me away”. All very good, but nothing extraordinary.

    1. Abbi

      I have been ranting about Gyllenhaal for weeks. He was definitely robbed! I have to agree with you on the best actress nominations. The fact that I haven’t seen half of them is kind of an indication that the films were just not that exciting.

  6. I’ve only seen Birdman and Gone Girl, but I definitely enjoyed those two. I can’t wait for Nightcrawler though!

    1. Abbi

      Nightcrawler is excellent. It definitely should have been nominated for best picture,

  7. Even though I wasn’t high on the movie…

    …and don’t really want it…

    …I think Redmayne earned the victory for his role. However, Jake should have been nominated and I would have cheered my ass off if he won instead.

    Meryl Streep better not win. I’m totally with you.

    1. Abbi

      I have to give Redmayne props for his performance. I think The Theory of Everything was good but certainly not great. The only thing that really makes it stand out is his performance and to a lesser extent Felicity Jones’but I don’t think any of the contenders this year did anything that even touced Jake Gyllenhaal’s portrayal of Lou Bloom. I love Meryl but Into the Woods was dreadful and all her whole performance was just shrieking and spinning around.

  8. “what is production design anyway” LOL

    I watched Boyhood yesterday and did not like it and nothing would make me happier than if it won nothing! Haha oh well

    I really hope Whiplash wins at least Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor (looks like it will)

    Haven’t seen Nightcrawler but really hope Birdman takes Best Adapted Screenplay

    I would LOVE for Keira Knightley or Emma Stone to pull an upset and beat Patricia Arquette, who I wasn’t impressed by

    Eddie Redmayne will probably win Best Actor, and I’m so happy for that.

    Julianne Moore will win Best Actress, ad while I really loved her work, I still prefer Marion Cotillard’s

    The cinematography in Budapest was great but I don’t think it holds a candle to Emmanuel Lubezki’s work in Birdman. Here’s to hoping he wins his second Oscar in a row!

    My absolute dream would be for González Iñárritu to take Best Director and Whiplash to win Best Picture (that, of course, will not happen but a boy can dream) I think Boyhood will take those two

    1. Abbi

      Unlike a lot of the movie bloggers out there I didn’t study film in any way so I am a bit clueless about the technical stuff. Lol!

      I think Boyhood has been quite a polarising film and I can totally see why. Personally I loved it but I am a big fan of Linklater’s rambling style of film making so it was always going to appeal to me.

      You should see Nightcrawler. It’s awesome.

      I liked Birdman but it didn’t have the same emotional connection for me as Boyhood or Selma, which I finally saw last night. As longas American Sniper doesn’t win anything I will be happy!

      1. I didn’t study Film either but I studied Communication so that’s why I knew what production design meant.

        Here it is per Wikipedia: “In film and television, a production designer or P.D is the person responsible for the overall look of a filmed event such as a film, TV program, video game, music video or advertisement. Working directly with the director and producer, they must select the settings and style to visually tell the story. Previously (and often subsequently) the people with the same responsibilities were called “art directors.”

        Well, I loved Linklater’s Before trilogy but I just couldn’t get into Boyhood.

        I will see Nightcrawler. I promise.

        Haven’t seen Selma or American Sniper so can’t comment, but I’m not going out of my way for Sniper, either.

        1. Abbi

          Very informative!

          Did you like Dazed and Confused?

          Selma is excellent but American Sniper is one of the worst films I have seen this year and I’ve been to see Fifty Shades of Grey!

          1. 😉

            Haven’t seen that, actually!

            Wow. Strong words. Still I have to see it and witness the fake plastic baby! haha

  9. This made me laugh: “What do I think actually should win and didn’t even get fucking nominated?
    Jake Gyllenhaal in “Nightcrawler”” – LOL!

    Also, not a fan of American Sniper huh? I still need to catch that. I enjoyed your list lady!

    1. Abbi

      I am not going to stopped being pissed off about Jake Gyllenhaal being shafted for a long time.

      The more I think about American Sniper the more I hated it.

      1. I can agree with you though, it was a damn fine performance from him, and it is criminal that it is being overlooked.

        Oh wow! I cannot wait to find out why hahaha!

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